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Eric Kaufmann Æ 0 characters Read ✓ PDF, DOC, TXT or eBook Æ Eric Kaufmann Read & Download Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Parts by mid century Islamist Muslims have won the culture war in much of the Muslim world and their success provides a glimpse of what awaits the Christian West and Israel Based on a wealth of demographic research considering uestions of multiculturalism and terrorism Kaufmann examines the implications of the decline in liberal secularism as religious conservatism rises and what this means for the future of western modernity. This book answers the uestion of its title with a loud clear YES It s about demography the statistical study of human populations This is a complex subject Author Eric Kaufmann has written other books in the field including the recent Whiteshift which I ve reviewed for The basic uestion of demography is How do numbers of a population change The obvious answer is that women have babies people emigrate out of the population migrate into it and die For most of human history these rates have not varied a great deal For a human group to maintain its population a woman must bear over her lifetime an average of 21 children The current U S total fertility rate TFR is currently 1765 Beginning in the eighteenth century the industrial revolution and other scientific and technological events in the West led to continually increasing birthrates over the world Between the World Wars birthrates levelled off and began to decrease After World War II there was a brief reversal but the downward trend resumed and in general has spread irregularly to other regions of the world This is known as the Second Demographic TransitionThere is a parallel between population growth in human communities viewed as simply aggregates and population growth in religious communities The religious believe certain doctrines and can increase their numbers by having children and bringing them up within the faith endogenous growth The author also states in connection with the Mormon church No religion can grow without enlisting converts from the wider society the two strategies for fundamentalist expansion are external proselytization and endogenous growth Since 1830 Mormons have averaged over 40 per cent growth per decade maintaining this pace in all five post Second World War decades p 31Mormonism is an example of what may appear an unusual trend a fast growing American religion of intensely motivated followers that is socially and politically conservative Even if we stick to the U S we can find other confirming instances Consider the Hutterites an Anabaptist sect living in Canada and the Northwestern U S From 400 individuals in 1880 they have increased to 50000 today They dress distinctively speak a German dialect which is unintelligible to their neighbors and hold property in common Their communities are largely self sufficient The Amish are another example also Anabaptists who have grown from 5000 in 1900 to a uarter of a million today These sects typically have 4 or 5 children per familyAfter the famous Scopes trial of 1925 the liberal Protestant establishment then known as Federal Council of Churches later renamed as the National Council of Churches in the U S resolved to move in step with the leading secular values In effect literalist Protestants were waking up to the realization that they were not the country and would have to fall back on their own resources to preserve their culture p77 Among the resources were ideas such as premillennial dispensationism proposed well before Scopes promoted by later evangelists and later popularized by Hal Lindsey in his bestselling fiction series The Late Great Planet Earth In this prophecy those who commit to Christ will be saved during the Rapture a seven year period in which the earth will succumb to the End Times The theology is too complex to explain here But the author explains the circumstances Conversion of mainline Protestants to evangelical denominations is part of the story and represents an important change from previous eras when the cachet of mainline Protestant churches attracted converts from humbler fundamentalist sects p89 Currently increases in evangelical fertility has largely ended But a new source of endogenous growth among whites is underway known as uiverfull after a certain Biblical passage The author comments Early signs are that uiverfull is emulating the successful retention record of Anabaptists and Mormons Infused with a sense of mission and divine election uiverfull children have been raised in opposition to the secular and even evangelical mainstream its concerns resonate with wider Western fears of population decline One theologian Russell Moore at Southern Baptist Theological Seminary has written Let s outbreed the Mormons p 39Of course beginning with Christians themselves there have been dissenting groups who split off from a parent group over disagreements in doctrine and later became independent of the parent Along with doctrinal independence came economic independence as well This has been the story for the Protestant groups previously discussed But there are certain dissenters within the Jewish community the Haredim Before the state of Israel was established they were the traditional ruling group Although nearly devastated in World War II they were resuscitated by subsidies although their distinctive function within Jewish society was replaced in most ways by the new Israeli secular government But these Haredi students have not lost their political standing Their study of religious texts is heavily government subsidized they are paid allowances for their children while studying they obtain numerous government benefits and above all they have a high fertility rate For Haredim in Kiryas Joel NY the average family size is 66 There are other conservative sects and parties which are not dependent on government benefits and the Haredi are not popular It s hard for me to see why with so many conservative sects the Haredi are singled out so generouslyEven while mainstream Christianity in Europe appears to be in decline this trend is flattening Jews in Britain Conservative Christians such as Pentecostals charismatics Laestadian Lutherans in Finland and Calvinists in the Netherlands are flourishing The author writes Several recent studies examine the connection between religiosity whether defined as attendance belief or affiliation and fertility in Europe Traditionally education was considered the main determinant of a woman s fertility Yet in many European studies a woman s level of religiosity is as or important than her education in determining the number of children she will bear p160 This generalization applies to Muslim immigrants as well as Christians and Jews Getting accurate data of Muslims in Europe is difficult though because no demographers have performed projections of Europe s religious composition akin to those of the US Census Bureau for America s racial composition p169 Still he performs these estimates using what data exists and provides a lot of interesting information although Reflections on the Revolution in Europe by Christopher Caldwell is in general illuminating concernign this group This is a valuable bookRead ✓ PDF, DOC, TXT or eBook Æ Eric Kaufmann
Eric Kaufmann Æ 0 characters Read ✓ PDF, DOC, TXT or eBook Æ Eric Kaufmann Read & Download Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Dawkins and Hitchens have convinced many western intellectuals that secularism is the way forward But most people don't read their books before deciding whether to be religious Instead they inherit their faith from their parents who often innoculate them against the elegant arguments of secularists And what no one has noticed is that far from declining the religious are expanding their share of the population in fact the reli. Big picture rich with facts and very well written I checked some number though and it seems that fertility rates and retention rates of some of the discussed religious groups have fallen a bit I might guess Kaufmann exaggerates the probability that religion will make a comeback
Eric Kaufmann Æ 0 characters
Eric Kaufmann Æ 0 characters Read ✓ PDF, DOC, TXT or eBook Æ Eric Kaufmann Read & Download Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Gious people are the children they have The cumulative effect of immigration from religious countries and religious fertility will be to reverse the secularisation process in the West Not only will the religious eventually triumph over the non religious but it is those who are the most extreme in their beliefs who have the largest familiesWithin Judaism the Ultra Orthodox may achieve majority status over their liberal counter. This should be reuired reading for any student of modern history or anyone who wishes a in depth understanding of the current political landscape broadly speaking in the Western and Islamic worlds The main argument advanced by Kaufmann is that current demographic trends are pointing toward religious people and fundamentalists in particular growing as a proportion of the population to the point where they will become a majority or significant portion of the population this varies from country to country but the trend is present across allThe introductory chapters of the book are a tad dry but Kaufmann excels when he comes into his main anlyses of case studies These focus in turn on Christianity Islam and Judaism and each present compelling evidence and at the very least interesting analyses of communities such as the uiverfull Christian movement and the extraordinary growth of the Haredi Jewish communities in IsraelKaufmann writes simultaneously in a scholarly and lucid prose which is extremely useful when he is explaining terms unfamiliar to most and makes the book an enjoyable read I would highly recommend this to anyone wishing a greater understanding of how the world may look like in the coming century and why religious issues remain a persistent political issue across the worldAs an addendum I would not that unfortunately physical copies of this seem hard to find or ludicrously expensive I would recommend reading on a kindle if at all possible
- Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?
- Eric Kaufmann
- 14 July 2020